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We will see $300 a barrel — or roughly $250 in today’s dollars — because oil supply will be so short. If you want that oil, that’s what you will have to pay for it. That will be in 2015, after the peak of oil [supply]. But even earlier, around 2010, more than 50% of the non-OPEC world will have peaked in its production of oil so the dependence on OPEC will become extreme. That will give OPEC a chance, I’m afraid, to lift prices rather more quickly on us than they are doing today…. It is going to be a lot easier in the next 10 years to reduce demand than it is going to be finding new supplies to substitute for oil. That’s a very big principle.

September 14, 2008

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